2025 Steel Pipe Market Trend

Policy-driven and market expectations：
The steel pipe industry is expected to usher in an improvement in 2025, with domestic and foreign policy adjustments (such as more proactive fiscal policies and loose monetary policies) being the main driving force. It is expected that the volatility of steel prices will narrow compared with 2024, and the prices of welded pipes, seamless pipes and other varieties will show a trend of "low before and high after". For example, the factory price of Tangshan 4-inch welded pipe in the first half of the year was 3000-3700 yuan/ton, and in the second half of the year, it rose to 3100-3900 yuan/ton 510.

Exports and trade challenges：
Although China's steel pipe exports in 2024 hit the second-highest level in nearly 10 years (such as welded pipe exports increased by 20.78%), but by international anti-dumping investigations (such as the European Union's seamless pipe investigation in China) and the slowdown in overseas demand, export uncertainty in 2025 is increased, and seamless pipe exports are expected to remain at about 5 million tons.

Output and capacity adjustment：

In 2024, seamless steel pipe production decreased by 6.6% (about 29.7 million tons), welded pipe production decreased by 7.9% (60.507 million tons), and capacity utilization rate was only 55%.

In 2025, the production capacity of seamless steel pipes will continue to rise, but industry competition will intensify, corporate profit margins will be compressed, and some small and medium-sized enterprises will face survival pressure.

Demand differentiation and regional differences：

Infrastructure, oil and gas pipelines, electricity and other areas of demand resilience, but the weakness of the real estate industry dragged down the overall demand 310.

Regional performance was significant, for example, welded pipe production in the Tianjin-Hebei region decreased by 14% year-on-year, while spiral pipe and square pipe increased by 3.8% and 8.5%, respectively.

Corporate profit pressure
In 2024, the profit of seamless pipe enterprises generally declined, the average profit of billet rolling enterprises was negative, and the profit of blast furnace and electric furnace enterprises fell by 24% to 50%. Some enterprises ease the pressure by exporting high value-added products, such as Changbao shares net profit decreased by 33.82%.

Technological innovation and transformation
The industry is accelerating the transformation to green production and intelligent transformation, such as Hubei Juyuan Deli Machinery and Xingtu Shares recently obtained patents related to steel pipe processing and construction technology, promoting process innovation79. At the same time, industrial chain integration and digital transformation are seen as key to enhancing competition10.

In 2025, the steel pipe industry will face a situation of "favorable policies and differentiated demand", and enterprises need to pay close attention to the domestic and foreign economic situation, strengthen technology upgrading and supply chain coordination. Price volatility is expected to moderate throughout the year, but structural opportunities still exist in areas such as infrastructure and energy, and export markets need to be alert to the risk of trade barriers.